Updated September 23, 2026 · How we simulate
$44 Inside with Regression loses about $14 per hour on average at a $5 table (100 rolls, $44 inside, drop to $22 after the first hit). You finish ahead in 47% of hours, and it ranks #4 of 11 popular strategies for lowest cost.
Start at $44 inside, then drop to $22 inside after the first hit. We ran it through 200,000 simulated hour-long sessions (100 rolls each, $5 table, real casino payouts) to see what actually happens.
Place $44 inside when the point is set. After the first hit, tell the dealer "regress": your bets drop to $22 inside ($5 on 5 and 9, $6 on 6 and 8) and the difference comes back to you along with the win. That first hit plus the regression means you're already ahead for this shooter.
The bets go back to $44 for the next shooter.
Bets: $44 inside, drop to $22 after the first hit.
| Outcome | Result |
|---|---|
| Average (what it costs you over time) | −$14 |
| Median hour | −$7 |
| Bad hour (1 in 10 are worse) | −$167 |
| Good hour (1 in 10 are better) | $129 |
| Best 1% of hours | $217 or more |
| Worst 1% of hours | −$313 or worse |
Out of the 11 strategies we've simulated, $44 Inside with Regression ranks #4 for lowest average cost per hour. See the full ranking.
Watch $44 Inside with Regression play one hour. 100 real-odds rolls on autopilot in about 20 seconds, then see how your hour compares with 200,000 simulated ones.
⚡ Run it nowPlay it yourselfEach session is 100 rolls (about an hour at a busy table) starting on a new shooter, using standard Vegas rules: 3-4-5x odds, casino payouts rounded down, place bets off on the come-out, and a $5,000 table max. At the end of the hour we stop betting, take down removable bets and let contract bets finish. "Down $500" counts any point in the hour where the session was $500 behind. Dice come from a cryptographic random generator. Results are practice estimates, not predictions.
No betting pattern changes the edge. Regression lowers how much you have at risk, so you lose less on average and win more often in short sessions.
A common rule: regress after the first hit, then start pressing again after two or three more hits.
After your first hit, say "Regress to $22 inside." The dealer will adjust your bets and pay you the difference.