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Don't Pass with Lay Odds

Bet against the shooter on the Don't Pass, then lay odds against the point. We ran it through 40,000 simulated hour-long sessions (100 rolls each, $15 table, real casino payouts) to see what actually happens.

The verdictMathematically the cheapest line bet in the house, and once a point is set you're favored. The catch: you're rooting against the table, and you win small and lose big on the odds.
Average result per hour−$7
Sessions you finish ahead48%
Typical hour (middle 80%)−$245 to $230
Hours down $500 at some point0.7%

How the Don't Pass with Lay Odds works

Put $15 on the Don't Pass bar on the come-out. 2 or 3 wins, 12 is a push, and 7 or 11 loses. Once a point is set, you win if a 7 comes before the point. Here we lay $30 in odds (2x) against the point. Lay odds pay true odds, so like pass odds they carry no house edge.

At 1.36% the Don't Pass is slightly cheaper than the Pass Line. Once a point is set, you're the favorite on every roll.

Bets: $15 don't pass + 2x lay.

What 40,000 simulated hours look like

−$440 to −$404−$404 to −$369−$369 to −$333−$333 to −$298−$298 to −$262−$262 to −$226−$226 to −$191−$191 to −$155−$155 to −$119−$119 to −$84−$84 to −$48−$48 to −$13−$13 to $23$23 to $59$59 to $94$94 to $130$130 to $166$166 to $201$201 to $237$237 to $273$273 to $308$308 to $344$344 to $379$379 to $415break even−$440$415
Each bar is a range of results for one hour (100 rolls). Green bars are winning hours, red are losing hours.
OutcomeResult
Average (what it costs you over time)−$7
Median hour−$5
Bad hour (1 in 10 are worse)−$245
Good hour (1 in 10 are better)$230
Best 1% of hours$415 or more
Worst 1% of hours−$440 or worse

Out of the 11 strategies we've simulated, Don't Pass with Lay Odds ranks #1 for lowest average cost per hour. See the full ranking.

Try Don't Pass with Lay Odds free. We'll set the bets up on our table with real casino rules and minimums. No money, no signup.

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How we tested it

Each session is 100 rolls (about an hour at a busy table) starting on a new shooter, using standard Vegas rules: 3-4-5x odds, casino payouts rounded down, place bets off on the come-out, and a $5,000 table max. At the end of the hour we stop betting, take down removable bets and let contract bets finish. "Down $500" counts any point in the hour where the session was $500 behind. Dice come from a cryptographic random generator. Results are practice estimates, not predictions.

Other strategies

Pass Line with Max Odds−$8 avg per hour · wins 48% of sessionsThe 3-Point Molly−$11 avg per hour · wins 48% of sessionsBuy the 4 and 10−$13 avg per hour · wins 45% of sessionsPlace 6 & 8, Collect One, Press One−$14 avg per hour · wins 39% of sessions$44 Inside with Regression−$16 avg per hour · wins 47% of sessionsThe Cold Table Hedge−$18 avg per hour · wins 43% of sessions

Common questions

Is Don't Pass better than Pass?

By a hair: 1.36% vs 1.41% house edge. The real difference is feel: you win more often but in smaller amounts, and you're betting against everyone else at the table.

Why do you have to lay more than you win?

Because once a point is set, 7 is more likely than the point. Laying $30 against a 6 wins $25; laying against a 4 wins $15. That's true odds, no house edge.

Can I take my Don't Pass bet down?

Yes, after a point is set you can remove it. You shouldn't, though: at that moment it's your best bet on the table.