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Don't Pass with Lay Odds

Updated September 23, 2026 · How we simulate

Don't Pass with Lay Odds loses about $6 per hour on average at a $15 table (100 rolls, $15 don't pass + 2x lay). You finish ahead in 48% of hours, and it ranks #2 of 11 popular strategies for lowest cost.

Bet against the shooter on the Don't Pass, then lay odds against the point. We ran it through 200,000 simulated hour-long sessions (100 rolls each, $15 table, real casino payouts) to see what actually happens.

The verdictMathematically the cheapest line bet in the house, and once a point is set you're favored. The catch: you're rooting against the table, and you win small and lose big on the odds.
Average result per hour−$6
Sessions you finish ahead48%
Typical hour (middle 80%)−$245 to $230
Hours down $500 at some point0.7%

How the Don't Pass with Lay Odds works

Put $15 on the Don't Pass bar on the come-out. 2 or 3 wins, 12 is a push, and 7 or 11 loses. Once a point is set, you win if a 7 comes before the point. Here we lay $30 in odds (2x) against the point. Lay odds pay true odds, so like pass odds they carry no house edge.

At 1.36% the Don't Pass is slightly cheaper than the Pass Line. Once a point is set, you're the favorite on every roll.

Bets: $15 don't pass + 2x lay.

What 200,000 simulated hours look like

−$440 to −$405−$405 to −$369−$369 to −$334−$334 to −$298−$298 to −$263−$263 to −$228−$228 to −$192−$192 to −$157−$157 to −$121−$121 to −$86−$86 to −$50−$50 to −$15−$15 to $20$20 to $56$56 to $91$91 to $127$127 to $162$162 to $197$198 to $233$233 to $268$268 to $304$304 to $339$339 to $375$375 to $410break even−$440$410
Each bar is a range of results for one hour (100 rolls). Green bars are winning hours, red are losing hours.
OutcomeResult
Average (what it costs you over time)−$6
Median hour−$5
Bad hour (1 in 10 are worse)−$245
Good hour (1 in 10 are better)$230
Best 1% of hours$410 or more
Worst 1% of hours−$440 or worse

Out of the 11 strategies we've simulated, Don't Pass with Lay Odds ranks #2 for lowest average cost per hour. See the full ranking.

Watch Don't Pass with Lay Odds play one hour. 100 real-odds rolls on autopilot in about 20 seconds, then see how your hour compares with 200,000 simulated ones.

⚡ Run it nowPlay it yourself

How we tested it

Each session is 100 rolls (about an hour at a busy table) starting on a new shooter, using standard Vegas rules: 3-4-5x odds, casino payouts rounded down, place bets off on the come-out, and a $5,000 table max. At the end of the hour we stop betting, take down removable bets and let contract bets finish. "Down $500" counts any point in the hour where the session was $500 behind. Dice come from a cryptographic random generator. Results are practice estimates, not predictions.

Other strategies

Pass Line with Max Odds−$6 avg per hour · wins 48% of sessionsBuy the 4 and 10−$11 avg per hour · wins 45% of sessions$44 Inside with Regression−$14 avg per hour · wins 47% of sessionsPlace 6 & 8, Collect One, Press One−$16 avg per hour · wins 38% of sessionsThe 3-Point Molly−$16 avg per hour · wins 48% of sessionsThe Cold Table Hedge−$17 avg per hour · wins 43% of sessions

Common questions

Is Don't Pass better than Pass?

By a hair: 1.36% vs 1.41% house edge. The real difference is feel: you win more often but in smaller amounts, and you're betting against everyone else at the table.

Why do you have to lay more than you win?

Because once a point is set, 7 is more likely than the point. Laying $30 against a 6 wins $25; laying against a 4 wins $15. That's true odds, no house edge.

Can I take my Don't Pass bet down?

Yes, after a point is set you can remove it. You shouldn't, though: at that moment it's your best bet on the table.